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01 Nov 2022

India shining ABC

Our views

Slippage was at an all-time high and the bank wrote-off Rs 3500 crore (almost 4% of loans), its second largest write-off. Despite this, the SMA pool remains unchanged QoQ, imp

Rationale

Bandhan Bank stock nosedived ~10% in trade after reporting weak earnings performance in its Q2FY23 quarterly results over the weekend.  NIMs declined, provisions doubled, slippages elevated, significant jump in Cost to income ratio impacted earnings. Higher write-offs spoilt the show leading to PAT of Rs. 209 cr, down 76% QoQ. 

What should Investors do?

Continued investment in tech, people and process to keep cost elevated. Management hopeful of regaining traction in H2FY23 and non-MFI book to grow at faster pace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncertainty on stressed pool remains an overhang on the stock. 

Top picks

Continued investment in tech, people and process to keep cost elevated. Management hopeful of regaining traction in H2FY23 and non-MFI book to grow at faster pace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncertainty on stressed pool remains an overhang on the stock. 

Key Triggers for sector performance
  • Continued investment in tech, people and process to keep cost elevated. Management hopeful of regaining traction in H2FY23 and non-MFI book to grow at faster pace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration.
  • We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term.
  • Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncertainty on stressed pool remains an overhang on the stock. 

Sector Table

Sector/Company CMP TP - M Cap EPS P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) ROE (%)
- (₹) (₹) Rating (₹ Cr) FY22P FY23E FY24E FY22P FY23E FY24E FY22P FY23E FY24E FY22P FY23E FY24E FY22P FY23E FY24E
Apollo Tyre (APOTYR) 186 230 Buy 11,818 10.1 12.7 19.4 18.5 14.6 9.6 6.4 5.5 4.2 6.3 7.3 10.3 5.4 6.6 9.4
Ashok Leyland (ASHLEY) 145 160 Buy 42,370 1.8 2.1 4.6 78.4 70.3 31.3 43.3 24.5 15.2 2.1 8.5 17 0.2 7.9 16.2
Bajaj Auto (BAAUTO) 3,678 3,950 Hold 103,430 173.4 183.4 204.1 21.2 20.1 18 15.8 14.1 12.5 18.4 19.9 21.6 17.6 19.1 20.5
Balkrishna Ind. (BALIND) 2,203 2,475 Buy 42,590 73 81.4 103.2 30.2 27.1 21.4 22.4 18.2 14.2 15.9 18 21.7 20.4 19.4 20.7
Bajaj Fin 7500 8000 Buy 50000 16 17 18 17 16 17 18 17 16 17 18 17
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

story in charts

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AUM (Consolidated)                 
₹ crore  Sept21  Dec21  Mar22  Jun22  Sept22   YoY QoQ
Auto Finance Business 10738 10620 10194 9962 10160   -5% 2%
consumer b2b Sales Finance Business 12555 14920 14977 16475 16259   30% -1%
consumer B2C Business 33679 36344 38772 41207 44072   31% 7%
Rural Sales Finance Business 3258 3993 4129 4564 4329   33% -5%
Rural B2C Business 13376 14311 15301 16740 17908   34% 7%
SME Lending Business 21871 23153 24979 26564 28881   32% 9%
Securities Lending Business+IPO 7463 9127 15901 10801 12287   65% 14%
Commercial Lending Business 9801 10478 11498 12040 13378   36% 11%
Mortgages 54196 58304 61701 65665 71092   31% 8%
Total 166767 181250 192087 204018 218366   31% 7%

 

 

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Our Perspective:  Continued investment in tech, people and process to keep cost elevated. Management hopeful of regaining traction in H2FY23 and non-MFI book to grow at faster pace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncertainty on stressed pool remains an overhang on the stock.

 

 Our Perspective:  Continued investment in tech, people and process to keep cost elevated. Management hopeful of regaining traction in H2FY23 and non-MFI book to grow at faster pace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncertainty on stressed pool remains an overhang on the stock.

 

 

ace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncerta

ace in line with strategy to dilute product & geographical concentration. We believe slippages from the restructured book to remain elevated. Though, recovery from Assam relief scheme to control credit cost, overall credit cost guidance increased from 2.5% to ~3% for FY23E. Delayed recoveries may dent earnings momentum in the near term. Balance sheet restructuring is in progress and expect return ratios to remain subdued. Operationally volatile performance and uncerta

      (% growth)
(Year-end March)  FY21 FY22 FY23E
Total assets 3.6 24.0 23.1
Advances 3.8 30.5 27.0
Borrowings 4.7 25.5 22.1
Net interest income 2.1 26.9 30.1
Operating Income 2.1 26.8 30.1
Operating expenses -6.8 27.1 30.7
Operating profit 6.3 19.7 29.8
Net profit -16.0 59.2 63.5
Net worth 14.2 18.4 25.2
EPS -17.8 58.7 63.1

Price Chart

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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